Is it wrong to manipulate the data, if it makes you feel good?

During the president’s interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday (July 19, 2020), the two quickly got into a disagreement about the COVID-19 fatality rate in the U.S.  Mr. Wallace asked a question, indicating the U.S. has the 7^th highest mortality rate in the world; President Trump replies and states the U.S. has one of the lowest mortality rates, asking Kayleigh McEnany to get him the mortality rate information while saying, “I heard we had one of the lowest, maybe the lowest mortality rate anywhere in the world…number one low mortality rate.  I hope you show this on the air because it shows what fake news is all about” Here is a link to the interview transcript:  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump

Since I do my best to compose data-informed positions, I became curious what information is being shared with the President to cause him to make such a bold assertion about the U.S. case mortality rate, especially since I’ve looked at the data myself and have never seen the U.S. ranking as the lowest mortality rate in the world.  Since I’ve watched a number of Ms. McEnany’s press conferences, I know she is always prepared with a binder of information.  I think I found the source of mortality rate information Ms. McEnany shared with the President, and it can clearly be seen at the July 6, 2020 press conference, and more specifically @ timestamp 4:32 of the official White House press briefing video.  I recreated the same chart using the same data source (Our World in Data COVID-19 Data Explorer), although mine is extended to a more current date.  

Clearly, in this view, the U.S. has the lowest mortality rate, “number one” as the president indicated.  Nothing about the chart is incorrect – it contains actual data, albeit of only 5 countries.  I don’t consider the President to be very detailed, so perhaps he didn’t realize that most of the world’s countries are not represented on the graph, or maybe in his world, these are the only countries which matter.

I decided to create my own chart and include well-known and large countries, and especially those which likely are able to test widely, and have reasonably robust data reporting mechanisms.  The chart I made still excludes the majority of the world’s countries.  In this chart, it’s easy to see that the U.S. does not have the “number one” low mortality rate.  Although note that the mortality rate is dropping, which is good news.

So to my main question:  Is it wrong to manipulate the data like what the White House staff did, so that the President can brag on U.S. performance, and provide a positive narrative for the American people?  

The data they used is not incorrect – it’s just that some data was not used – withheld from the final analysis.  Declaring the U.S. as #1 – the best – helps reinforce the perception of U.S. superiority and makes people feel patriotic.  Don’t we need something positive and encouraging right now?  Doesn’t the President need something to feel good about?  Who doesn’t like to be number one?  We know the President loves to talk about being the best, and manipulating the mortality rate data allows him to say we’re the best, and I’m sure in his mind, he gets to take credit for that, and that makes him feel good.

Ok – so I know some people feel that this type of information distortion is really, really bad, and especially when espoused by the country’s leadership.  But the leadership of other countries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea distort and withhold information from their citizens, and they’re still getting by well enough.  Besides, we hear misinformation from politicians ALL THE TIME – it’s not as if President Trump is the only president who has used partial information to frame a not quite accurate narrative about the state of affairs in the country.

Also, think about how many people use partial information to support whatever it is that they feel is important for them to believe?  You want to be anti-vax?  Using partial information can help you be that.  You want to believe the earth is less than 10,000 years old?  Again, using partial information can help you believe that.  The president is far from being the only person with a personal need to believe something that isn’t quite accurate.

Think about his staff for a minute.  Can you imagine how difficult a job it is to work for this president?  The constant, never-ending demands, and having to be on call 24-7, and wondering what’s the next thing he will do or say, requiring clean-up.  I get it – just give him something that will put him in a good mood – even if only for a day.  People can only take so much, even if they are making a lot of money.  Really, what’s the harm?  It’s not like there’s some great worldwide prize for the country with the best COVID-19 mortality rate.

Finally, everyone knows that President Trump exaggerates, and in a big way.  No one really believes a lot of what he says.  Windmill noise causes cancer?  No one believes that, even if President Trump does.  We all know that he likes to manufacture his own facts, so he can boast and brag, and rail against the media.  Even his supporters know this.  I personally know some of his supporters – they know he’s usually not accurate in what he says.  It just doesn’t bother them, like it bothers his opponents.  So what’s the harm, when everyone knows he’s just being himself, and saying things that make him feel good? And who knows, in another year or two, he might eventually be right about the U.S. having the number one mortality rate.

What do you think?  Leave a comment below.