Comfortable in the middle

 Several times in the past month I’ve been puzzled by individuals asserting the U.S. COVID-19 death rate is so low as to be inconsequential, and not warranting the measures being taken to limit infectivity.  I’ve witnessed people asserting the COVID-19 death rate is much lower than 1 percent.  In one case, a person asserted it is only 0.035 percent (a discussion among a Facebook friend and his friends), and in another case, a person asserted it was 0.02 percent (a recent video interview with a prominent Christian pastor).  Yet, when I view the available data, for example, at the Our World In Data site , I continue to see a case fatality rate in the U.S. above 3%, as shown in this chart.  Three percent vs. 0.035 percent represents a huge difference in risk of death.  To put it another way, the current case fatality rate in the U.S. indicates that roughly 1 in 30 confirmed COVID-19 cases results in death.  What these other people are asserting is the C...

I like obtaining information from primary sources.  Instead of watching an interpretation of what someone says on any of the news outlets, I’d rather get my information directly from the source.  This is why I will listen to the actual press briefings from the White House, and press conferences by the president first, and then if I have time later, enjoy the entertaining (horrifying?) biased interpretations of what someone apparently said (from both left-biased and right-biased editorialists). Today, I was catching up with the president’s news conference from August 4th .  I’ve been very intrigued by the assortment of charts and graphs he’s been sharing recently.  Here is an image of one he shared during the news conference (you can verify using the displayed timestamp).  It shows an important metric, Case Fatality Rate, which is discussed frequently, but in this case, it is displayed with a two-week death lag, which I’ve not seen previously.  In my own ana...

Recent news made me look up the definition for the word “cure”.  Merriam-Webster offered me four definitions.  I decided to use definitions 2c (a course or period of treatment) and 2a (recovery or relief from a disease) in the composition of this blog title, Hydroxychloroquine is the cure (2c) that doesn’t always cure (2a). However, it looks like a lot of hopeful people took the bait of a r ecent press event by a group of careless doctors who used the word “cure” in asserting there is a cure for COVID-19.  Why do I assert they are careless?  Doctors are educated in a certain way, and should know not to use the word “cure” when it is not warranted, given its popular and common meaning. How do I know it is not a cure (2a definition)?  Peer reviewed articles like this one , published on July 1, 2020 .  If one takes the time to read and understand the results, it is clear that mortality still occurs with hydroxychloroquine treatment (range of 13.5-20.1% mortal...

During the president’s interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday (July 19, 2020) , the two quickly got into a disagreement about the COVID-19 fatality rate in the U.S.  Mr. Wallace asked a question, indicating the U.S. has the 7 th highest mortality rate in the world; President Trump replies and states the U.S. has one of the lowest mortality rates, asking Kayleigh McEnany to get him the mortality rate information while saying, “ I heard we had one of the lowest, maybe the lowest mortality rate anywhere in the world…number one low mortality rate.  I hope you show this on the air because it shows what fake news is all about ” Here is a link to the interview transcript:  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump Since I do my best to compose data-informed positions, I became curious what information is being shared with the President to cause him to make such a bold assertion about the U.S. case mortality r...